Oyedele: how N15.8tr subsidy removal gains were utilised

 



The Federal Government yesterday highlighted the several benefits that have accrued to the nation through the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.


The savings realised from two key policies – the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of foreign exchange rates – stood at N15.8 trillion.


The subsidy savings were largely responsible for stability in the fiscal space, with states now able to meet their obligations to staff and contractors unhindered, in contrast to the previous situation where several states relied on loans to meet basic salary and other commitments.



The scorecard session at the Federal Ministry of Finance headquarters was attended by some ministers and heads of departments, including the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Alhaji Atiku Bagudu, and the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, on the day campaigns for the January 16, 2027 presidential election opened.


A breakdown indicated that states and councils received about N10.4 trillion, while the Federal Government got N5.4 trillion from the subsidy savings.





Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, who presented the government’s three-year economic reform scorecard yesterday in Abuja, said the reforms helped to stabilise the economy, deepen nationwide sub-national development and reset the Nigerian economy for sustainable growth. NigerianCulture Magazine



He noted that the benefits and potential damage avoided since the administration began its major economic changes outweighed the possible crises that would have ensued without the government’s courageous reforms.


He pointed out that while the reforms were not designed simply to increase government revenue, they produced the twin positive effects of increasing revenue and ending endemic corruption that had been draining the country.


According to him, the reforms created additional fiscal space by improving the flow of oil and non-oil revenue into the Federation Account and reducing the financial obligations that would otherwise have been carried into the future.



He highlighted that savings from the removal of the petrol subsidy formed part of a wider increase in government resources at a time when the country was dealing with severe fiscal pressures.


He noted that the government also generated N3.1 trillion in additional independent revenue, mainly from remittances by government-owned entities, while raising N11.9 trillion through additional borrowing.


The incremental resources of N20.4 trillion during the period supported an expanded expenditure profile, with the government spending N30.64 trillion on additional expenses over the same period, with the largest portions going to public-sector wages, debt servicing and infrastructure.



He outlined that N9.39 trillion was spent on wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and allowances for public servants, while N9.37 trillion went into servicing external debt following the impact of exchange-rate depreciation. A total of N6.5 trillion was spent on strategic infrastructure.


He stated that borrowing accounted for 58 per cent of the N20.4 trillion in incremental resources, while subsidy savings contributed 27 per cent and other revenue accounted for the remaining 15 per cent.


He added that two-thirds of the N30.64 trillion in additional expenditure was financed from these new resources, while about N10 trillion came from the existing revenue base.



Oyedele said this expansionary fiscal drive was achieved while the government stopped relying on excessive Ways and Means financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).


While acknowledging the negative effects of high interest rates and increases in petrol prices, Oyedele pointed out that maintaining the old policies would have produced even more serious problems.


As pain points of the reforms, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the benchmark interest rate, increased from 18.5 per cent in May 2023 to 26.5 per cent, while petrol prices moved from approximately N185 per litre to between N1,100 and N1,400 per litre.


Oyedele said without the reforms, Nigerians could have ended up with a worse scenario of an endless spiral into high prices, mounting debts and macroeconomic instability.


He said petrol, which had been marked by perennial scarcity, could have become difficult to obtain at the former official price while selling for more than N3,000 per litre on the black market, while the difference between official and parallel-market exchange rates could have risen above 150 per cent, compared with less than five per cent currently.


He described the increase in interest rates and petrol prices as costs of economic stabilisation that should not be hidden from the public, but must be properly situated within the context of the past and what could have happened without the reforms.


According to him, exchange-rate reform has reduced one of the major distortions that previously encouraged arbitrage and made it difficult for businesses and individuals to access foreign exchange through the official market.


Oyedele pointed out that 27 states were unable to reliably pay salaries in May 2023, noting that without the reform, at least 30 states could have been struggling to meet salary obligations by 2026.


He added that the legacy Ways and Means balance, which stood at about N30 trillion, had also been reduced instead of being allowed to rise sharply.


He highlighted other benefits of the reforms


The Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), introduced by the Tinubu administration, has provided support to more than 1.5 million students, while cash transfers, subsidised mortgages and agricultural interventions have been introduced to support vulnerable households and strengthen food security.



How Fed Govt deploying fuel subsidy savings, by Oyedele

Headline inflation fell to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 22.41 per cent in May 2023, while food inflation dropped from 24.82 per cent to 17.52 per cent.


Gross foreign reserves rose to $52.5 billion from approximately $35 billion at the start of the reform period, while net reserves increased from around $3 billion to $34.8 billion.


Oyedele pointed out that the difference between gross and net reserves was important because the net figure gives a better picture of the foreign-exchange buffer actually available to the country after taking account of relevant obligations.


He pointed out the general positive impact of the reforms on the economy.


The Nigerian capital market recorded historic growth, with market capitalisation rising from about N31 trillion to roughly N150 trillion. Government policies and reforms have also created thousands of new millionaires in the country.


He noted that real economic growth improved to 3.89 per cent from a May 2023 baseline of 2.31 per cent, as against possible stagnation or recession without the reforms.


Nigeria also received a sovereign credit-rating upgrade from S&P Global to B in May 2026.


The government described the development as the country’s first such upgrade in 14 years.


The scorecard also noted Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2025 and its removal from the European Union’s anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing deficiency list in January 2026.


Beyond the headline economic figures, the government said the reforms had produced direct benefits for households and workers.


Public servants had received wage adjustments and allowances, pension payments had improved and longstanding pension arrears had been settled. The minimum wage had also risen from N30,000 to N70,000.


The new tax framework was part of an effort to reduce pressure on poorer Nigerians and small businesses, with low-income earners and small enterprises receiving tax relief under the new system.


‘There are still challenges’


Oyedele, however, acknowledged that while the reforms had delivered measurable gains, there were still challenges of poverty, food affordability and the ability of households to recover from the economic shock.


He said: “On food and household welfare, our own assessment is candid: this remains work in progress.”


He said the next stage of the reform programme would therefore focus more directly on converting improvements in economic stability into benefits that Nigerians could feel in their homes.


He highlighted plans to expand cash transfers to vulnerable households, increase agricultural interventions aimed at reducing food prices and work with state and local governments to spread economic gains across the country.


He assured that the government would continue implementing the Nigeria Tax Act and introduce further changes to improve budgeting, public reporting and accountability.


According to him, the government expects the tax-to-GDP ratio to rise as the new tax system becomes fully operational and intends to pursue lower inflation, with a medium-term goal of bringing headline inflation into single digits.



He said the government would maintain the unified and predictable foreign exchange-rate system, noting that greater certainty was becoming more important to investors than individual incentives.


He said the government would also concentrate spending on projects and programmes with the greatest economic and social impact.


“We are not here to pretend these reforms were painless.


“We are here to show you, honestly and with the numbers, what they cost, the benefits they delivered, and the harm they prevented,” Oyedele said.


He explained that the projections used to determine what could have happened without the reforms were based on economic trends that existed before the reforms, including the rate at which debt servicing was consuming government revenue, depletion of foreign reserves used to defend the former exchange-rate system and the growth of Central Bank financing.


The reform scorecard was based on 25 indicators covering fiscal sustainability, external stability, investment climate, social impact, and economic growth and productivity.


It compared Nigeria’s position in May 2023 with verified data available by mid-2026.




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